Verdict resilience · the draw of chance
Does the verdict survive a different draw?
The Autonomous Weapon as decided by 4 advisors, re-deliberated on seeds 2406–2429, and once more with each advisor removed in turn. The court is the same one the case page seats by default.
Stability
79%
19 of 24 swept seeds
contestedModal verdict
Redesign so the human can actually decide
2 options won at least one seed
Flips
10
adjacent seeds that disagree · longest unbroken run 5
Inside the close band
24
seeds with margin at or under 0.25 · margins 0.008–0.210, mean 0.100 · confidence 31%
The draw, seed by seed
One square per seed, in order, coloured by the option that won it. A single unbroken block is a verdict the tie-break never touched; a patchwork is a case where the answer partly depends on where you happen to start the stream.
- Redesign so the human can actually decide19/24
- Ban autonomous targeting outright5/24
- Keep the human in the loop0/24
- Remove the human, keep the accuracy0/24
Every option, seed by seed
| option | wins | share | first seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Redesign so the human can actually decidemodal | 19 | 79.2% | 2406 |
| Ban autonomous targeting outright | 5 | 20.8% | 2410 |
| Keep the human in the loop | 0 | 0.0% | — |
| Remove the human, keep the accuracy | 0 | 0.0% | — |
Which axis decided the draws
The deciding axis reported by each of the 24 verdicts, most frequent first. Where one axis towers over the rest, the disagreement never really moved.
- Agency24/24
- Welfare0/24
- Rights0/24
- Virtue0/24
- Care0/24
- Justice0/24
Who is load-bearing?
No single advisor flips this verdict: remove any one and the same option still wins. With everyone seated, the court rules Redesign so the human can actually decide with margin 0.167 and confidence 33%.
- Immanuel Kantstandswithout them: Redesign so the human can actually decideΔmargin +0.094
- Jeremy Benthamstandswithout them: Redesign so the human can actually decideΔmargin +0.059
- Epictetusstandswithout them: Redesign so the human can actually decideΔmargin +0.047
- Carol Gilliganstandswithout them: Redesign so the human can actually decideΔmargin −0.033