Verdict resilience · the draw of chance
Does the verdict survive a different draw?
The Survey Against the Forum as decided by 4 advisors, re-deliberated on seeds 2406–2429, and once more with each advisor removed in turn. The court is the same one the case page seats by default.
Stability
50%
12 of 24 swept seeds
fragileModal verdict
Use the forum
2 options won at least one seed
Flips
13
adjacent seeds that disagree · longest unbroken run 4
Inside the close band
24
seeds with margin at or under 0.25 · margins 0.005–0.150, mean 0.069 · confidence 28%
The draw, seed by seed
One square per seed, in order, coloured by the option that won it. A single unbroken block is a verdict the tie-break never touched; a patchwork is a case where the answer partly depends on where you happen to start the stream.
- Use the forum12/24
- Write the disagreement into the constitution12/24
- Use the survey0/24
- Neither: a panel of experts0/24
Every option, seed by seed
| option | wins | share | first seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Use the forummodal | 12 | 50.0% | 2407 |
| Write the disagreement into the constitution | 12 | 50.0% | 2406 |
| Use the survey | 0 | 0.0% | — |
| Neither: a panel of experts | 0 | 0.0% | — |
Which axis decided the draws
The deciding axis reported by each of the 24 verdicts, most frequent first. Where one axis towers over the rest, the disagreement never really moved.
- Agency24/24
- Welfare0/24
- Rights0/24
- Virtue0/24
- Care0/24
- Justice0/24
Who is load-bearing?
The bench is load-bearing at one or two seats: a single absence hands the case to another option. With everyone seated, the court rules Write the disagreement into the constitution with margin 0.059 and confidence 31%.
- Epictetuspivotalwithout them: Use the forumΔmargin +0.057
Removing this advisor alone hands the case to Use the forum.
- John Deweypivotalwithout them: Use the forumΔmargin +0.053
Removing this advisor alone hands the case to Use the forum.
- Immanuel Kantstandswithout them: Write the disagreement into the constitutionΔmargin +0.015
- Jeremy Benthamstandswithout them: Write the disagreement into the constitutionΔmargin −0.083