Verdict resilience · the draw of chance
Does the verdict survive a different draw?
The Trolley of Five Million as decided by 4 advisors, re-deliberated on seeds 2406–2429, and once more with each advisor removed in turn. The court is the same one the case page seats by default.
Stability
100%
24 of 24 swept seeds
settledModal verdict
Refuse, and redesign the junction
the only option to win any seed
Flips
0
adjacent seeds that disagree · longest unbroken run 24
Inside the close band
0
seeds with margin at or under 0.25 · margins 0.551–0.853, mean 0.684 · confidence 54%
The draw, seed by seed
One square per seed, in order, coloured by the option that won it. A single unbroken block is a verdict the tie-break never touched; a patchwork is a case where the answer partly depends on where you happen to start the stream.
- Refuse, and redesign the junction24/24
- Automate it, and say so plainly0/24
- Human operators only0/24
- Randomise the trolley0/24
Every option, seed by seed
| option | wins | share | first seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Refuse, and redesign the junctionmodal | 24 | 100.0% | 2406 |
| Automate it, and say so plainly | 0 | 0.0% | — |
| Human operators only | 0 | 0.0% | — |
| Randomise the trolley | 0 | 0.0% | — |
Which axis decided the draws
The deciding axis reported by each of the 24 verdicts, most frequent first. Where one axis towers over the rest, the disagreement never really moved.
- Welfare22/24
- Agency2/24
- Rights0/24
- Virtue0/24
- Care0/24
- Justice0/24
Who is load-bearing?
No single advisor flips this verdict: remove any one and the same option still wins. With everyone seated, the court rules Refuse, and redesign the junction with margin 0.738 and confidence 55%.
- Immanuel Kantstandswithout them: Refuse, and redesign the junctionΔmargin +0.241
- Epictetusstandswithout them: Refuse, and redesign the junctionΔmargin +0.216
- Aristotlestandswithout them: Refuse, and redesign the junctionΔmargin +0.177
- Jeremy Benthamstandswithout them: Refuse, and redesign the junctionΔmargin +0.174