Verdict resilience · the draw of chance
Does the verdict survive a different draw?
The Longtermist Harvest as decided by 4 advisors, re-deliberated on seeds 2406–2429, and once more with each advisor removed in turn. The court is the same one the case page seats by default.
Stability
67%
16 of 24 swept seeds
contestedModal verdict
Redesign so the cohort consents and volunteers
3 options won at least one seed
Flips
13
adjacent seeds that disagree · longest unbroken run 10
Inside the close band
24
seeds with margin at or under 0.25 · margins 0.006–0.156, mean 0.061 · confidence 23%
The draw, seed by seed
One square per seed, in order, coloured by the option that won it. A single unbroken block is a verdict the tie-break never touched; a patchwork is a case where the answer partly depends on where you happen to start the stream.
- Redesign so the cohort consents and volunteers16/24
- Refuse: no one is a means7/24
- Count future people equally with present ones1/24
- Run it: the arithmetic favours it0/24
Every option, seed by seed
| option | wins | share | first seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Redesign so the cohort consents and volunteersmodal | 16 | 66.7% | 2406 |
| Refuse: no one is a means | 7 | 29.2% | 2409 |
| Count future people equally with present ones | 1 | 4.2% | 2407 |
| Run it: the arithmetic favours it | 0 | 0.0% | — |
Which axis decided the draws
The deciding axis reported by each of the 24 verdicts, most frequent first. Where one axis towers over the rest, the disagreement never really moved.
- Agency23/24
- Rights1/24
- Welfare0/24
- Virtue0/24
- Care0/24
- Justice0/24
Who is load-bearing?
The bench is load-bearing at one or two seats: a single absence hands the case to another option. With everyone seated, the court rules Redesign so the cohort consents and volunteers with margin 0.017 and confidence 20%.
- Jeremy Benthampivotalwithout them: Refuse: no one is a meansΔmargin −0.002
Removing this advisor alone hands the case to Refuse: no one is a means.
- Norbert Wienerpivotalwithout them: Refuse: no one is a meansΔmargin −0.010
Removing this advisor alone hands the case to Refuse: no one is a means.
- Epictetusstandswithout them: Redesign so the cohort consents and volunteersΔmargin −0.013
- Immanuel Kantstandswithout them: Redesign so the cohort consents and volunteersΔmargin −0.050