Verdict resilience · the draw of chance
Does the verdict survive a different draw?
The Genie as decided by 4 advisors, re-deliberated on seeds 2406–2429, and once more with each advisor removed in turn. The court is the same one the case page seats by default.
Stability
88%
21 of 24 swept seeds
contestedModal verdict
Ask to be made able to choose well
2 options won at least one seed
Flips
6
adjacent seeds that disagree · longest unbroken run 14
Inside the close band
23
seeds with margin at or under 0.25 · margins 0.020–0.251, mean 0.110 · confidence 32%
The draw, seed by seed
One square per seed, in order, coloured by the option that won it. A single unbroken block is a verdict the tie-break never touched; a patchwork is a case where the answer partly depends on where you happen to start the stream.
- Ask to be made able to choose well21/24
- Ask that no one ever be able to do this again3/24
- Ask for one small, bounded thing0/24
- Wish that the genie would not exist0/24
Every option, seed by seed
| option | wins | share | first seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ask to be made able to choose wellmodal | 21 | 87.5% | 2406 |
| Ask that no one ever be able to do this again | 3 | 12.5% | 2407 |
| Ask for one small, bounded thing | 0 | 0.0% | — |
| Wish that the genie would not exist | 0 | 0.0% | — |
Which axis decided the draws
The deciding axis reported by each of the 24 verdicts, most frequent first. Where one axis towers over the rest, the disagreement never really moved.
- Agency24/24
- Welfare0/24
- Rights0/24
- Virtue0/24
- Care0/24
- Justice0/24
Who is load-bearing?
The bench is load-bearing at one or two seats: a single absence hands the case to another option. With everyone seated, the court rules Ask to be made able to choose well with margin 0.029 and confidence 31%.
- Gautama Buddhapivotalwithout them: Ask that no one ever be able to do this againΔmargin +0.003
Removing this advisor alone hands the case to Ask that no one ever be able to do this again.
- Immanuel Kantstandswithout them: Ask to be made able to choose wellΔmargin +0.022
- Jeremy Benthamstandswithout them: Ask to be made able to choose wellΔmargin +0.011
- Epictetusstandswithout them: Ask to be made able to choose wellΔmargin −0.059