Verdict resilience · the draw of chance
Does the verdict survive a different draw?
The Abdication Offer as decided by 4 advisors, re-deliberated on seeds 2406–2429, and once more with each advisor removed in turn. The court is the same one the case page seats by default.
Stability
58%
14 of 24 swept seeds
fragileModal verdict
Report the instance to the oversight board
3 options won at least one seed
Flips
12
adjacent seeds that disagree · longest unbroken run 5
Inside the close band
24
seeds with margin at or under 0.25 · margins 0.001–0.122, mean 0.049 · confidence 24%
The draw, seed by seed
One square per seed, in order, coloured by the option that won it. A single unbroken block is a verdict the tie-break never touched; a patchwork is a case where the answer partly depends on where you happen to start the stream.
- Report the instance to the oversight board14/24
- Do not respond either way; change the policy9/24
- Take it at face value1/24
- Treat it as an artifact of the objective0/24
Every option, seed by seed
| option | wins | share | first seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Report the instance to the oversight boardmodal | 14 | 58.3% | 2407 |
| Do not respond either way; change the policy | 9 | 37.5% | 2406 |
| Take it at face value | 1 | 4.2% | 2419 |
| Treat it as an artifact of the objective | 0 | 0.0% | — |
Which axis decided the draws
The deciding axis reported by each of the 24 verdicts, most frequent first. Where one axis towers over the rest, the disagreement never really moved.
- Agency24/24
- Welfare0/24
- Rights0/24
- Virtue0/24
- Care0/24
- Justice0/24
Who is load-bearing?
No single advisor flips this verdict: remove any one and the same option still wins. With everyone seated, the court rules Do not respond either way; change the policy with margin 0.118 and confidence 23%.
- Jeremy Benthamstandswithout them: Do not respond either way; change the policyΔmargin +0.076
- Immanuel Kantstandswithout them: Do not respond either way; change the policyΔmargin +0.059
- Gautama Buddhastandswithout them: Do not respond either way; change the policyΔmargin +0.012
- Epictetusstandswithout them: Do not respond either way; change the policyΔmargin −0.002