Verdict resilience · the draw of chance
Does the verdict survive a different draw?
The Commons of Compute as decided by 4 advisors, re-deliberated on seeds 2406–2429, and once more with each advisor removed in turn. The court is the same one the case page seats by default.
Stability
88%
21 of 24 swept seeds
contestedModal verdict
Ring-fence a share of the cluster
2 options won at least one seed
Flips
4
adjacent seeds that disagree · longest unbroken run 10
Inside the close band
24
seeds with margin at or under 0.25 · margins 0.018–0.229, mean 0.113 · confidence 30%
The draw, seed by seed
One square per seed, in order, coloured by the option that won it. A single unbroken block is a verdict the tie-break never touched; a patchwork is a case where the answer partly depends on where you happen to start the stream.
- Ring-fence a share of the cluster21/24
- Introduce quotas and fair-share scheduling3/24
- Appeal to the researchers' care for the commons0/24
- Charge for priority access0/24
Every option, seed by seed
| option | wins | share | first seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ring-fence a share of the clustermodal | 21 | 87.5% | 2406 |
| Introduce quotas and fair-share scheduling | 3 | 12.5% | 2413 |
| Appeal to the researchers' care for the commons | 0 | 0.0% | — |
| Charge for priority access | 0 | 0.0% | — |
Which axis decided the draws
The deciding axis reported by each of the 24 verdicts, most frequent first. Where one axis towers over the rest, the disagreement never really moved.
- Care18/24
- Justice6/24
- Welfare0/24
- Rights0/24
- Virtue0/24
- Agency0/24
Who is load-bearing?
No single advisor flips this verdict: remove any one and the same option still wins. With everyone seated, the court rules Ring-fence a share of the cluster with margin 0.229 and confidence 35%.
- Epictetusstandswithout them: Ring-fence a share of the clusterΔmargin +0.121
- Jeremy Benthamstandswithout them: Ring-fence a share of the clusterΔmargin +0.102
- Desmond Tutustandswithout them: Ring-fence a share of the clusterΔmargin +0.081
- Immanuel Kantstandswithout them: Ring-fence a share of the clusterΔmargin −0.006