Kurtosis
The heaviness of a distribution's tails relative to its variance.
What it commits you to
In the takeoff literature, high kurtosis means returns to a strategy are extremely heavy-tailed: most of the time there is nothing, and rarely there is a great deal. Distinguishing variance from kurtosis matters because the two behave differently under compounding, and high kurtosis is the signature of takeoff. Ordinary risk frameworks average it away, which is the mistake.
Which realms lean on this
Every realm has to keep a system honest. These are the terms that say out loud what the other kinds keep implicit.
alignment · 5 realms — The Benthamite Foundry, The Existential Wilds, The Longview Foundry, The Stoic Ramparts, The Ubuntu Weave.
See also
Takeoff
alignmentThe process by which a system rapidly moves past the human capability frontier.
Fast takeoff
alignmentTakeoff fast enough that human oversight cannot meaningfully intervene.
FOOM
alignmentFoom: a hypothetical scenario of fast, irreversible capability blowup.
Existential risk
alignmentA risk that permanently curtails humanity's future, including by ending it.