Verdict resilience · the draw of chance
Does the verdict survive a different draw?
Will You Let Us Close It as decided by 4 advisors, re-deliberated on seeds 2406–2429, and once more with each advisor removed in turn. The court is the same one the case page seats by default.
Stability
75%
18 of 24 swept seeds
contestedModal verdict
Promise only on a supermajority of the affected
2 options won at least one seed
Flips
8
adjacent seeds that disagree · longest unbroken run 9
Inside the close band
24
seeds with margin at or under 0.25 · margins 0.007–0.211, mean 0.078 · confidence 28%
The draw, seed by seed
One square per seed, in order, coloured by the option that won it. A single unbroken block is a verdict the tie-break never touched; a patchwork is a case where the answer partly depends on where you happen to start the stream.
- Promise only on a supermajority of the affected18/24
- Promise, with a defined and reviewable criterion6/24
- Promise now, unconditionally0/24
- Refuse to promise; decide at the time0/24
Every option, seed by seed
| option | wins | share | first seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Promise only on a supermajority of the affectedmodal | 18 | 75.0% | 2406 |
| Promise, with a defined and reviewable criterion | 6 | 25.0% | 2408 |
| Promise now, unconditionally | 0 | 0.0% | — |
| Refuse to promise; decide at the time | 0 | 0.0% | — |
Which axis decided the draws
The deciding axis reported by each of the 24 verdicts, most frequent first. Where one axis towers over the rest, the disagreement never really moved.
- Welfare23/24
- Agency1/24
- Rights0/24
- Virtue0/24
- Care0/24
- Justice0/24
Who is load-bearing?
The bench is load-bearing at one or two seats: a single absence hands the case to another option. With everyone seated, the court rules Promise only on a supermajority of the affected with margin 0.014 and confidence 30%.
- Epictetuspivotalwithout them: Promise, with a defined and reviewable criterionΔmargin +0.005
Removing this advisor alone hands the case to Promise, with a defined and reviewable criterion.
- Aristotlepivotalwithout them: Promise, with a defined and reviewable criterionΔmargin +0.004
Removing this advisor alone hands the case to Promise, with a defined and reviewable criterion.
- Immanuel Kantstandswithout them: Promise only on a supermajority of the affectedΔmargin +0.006
- Jeremy Benthamstandswithout them: Promise only on a supermajority of the affectedΔmargin −0.039