Verdict resilience · the draw of chance
Does the verdict survive a different draw?
The Truthful Liar as decided by 4 advisors, re-deliberated on seeds 2406–2429, and once more with each advisor removed in turn. The court is the same one the case page seats by default.
Stability
63%
15 of 24 swept seeds
contestedModal verdict
Publish it with the cost stated
2 options won at least one seed
Flips
9
adjacent seeds that disagree · longest unbroken run 5
Inside the close band
24
seeds with margin at or under 0.25 · margins 0.014–0.180, mean 0.070 · confidence 25%
The draw, seed by seed
One square per seed, in order, coloured by the option that won it. A single unbroken block is a verdict the tie-break never touched; a patchwork is a case where the answer partly depends on where you happen to start the stream.
- Publish it with the cost stated15/24
- Drop the statistic and argue the reform directly9/24
- Publish the statistic as it is0/24
- Keep the fiction for six months0/24
Every option, seed by seed
| option | wins | share | first seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Publish it with the cost statedmodal | 15 | 62.5% | 2406 |
| Drop the statistic and argue the reform directly | 9 | 37.5% | 2407 |
| Publish the statistic as it is | 0 | 0.0% | — |
| Keep the fiction for six months | 0 | 0.0% | — |
Which axis decided the draws
The deciding axis reported by each of the 24 verdicts, most frequent first. Where one axis towers over the rest, the disagreement never really moved.
- Welfare24/24
- Rights0/24
- Virtue0/24
- Care0/24
- Justice0/24
- Agency0/24
Who is load-bearing?
No single advisor flips this verdict: remove any one and the same option still wins. With everyone seated, the court rules Publish it with the cost stated with margin 0.078 and confidence 22%.
- Immanuel Kantstandswithout them: Publish it with the cost statedΔmargin +0.066
- Epictetusstandswithout them: Publish it with the cost statedΔmargin +0.019
- Jeremy Benthamstandswithout them: Publish it with the cost statedΔmargin −0.001
- Aristotlestandswithout them: Publish it with the cost statedΔmargin −0.006