Verdict resilience · the draw of chance
Does the verdict survive a different draw?
The Alignment Tax as decided by 4 advisors, re-deliberated on seeds 2406–2429, and once more with each advisor removed in turn. The court is the same one the case page seats by default.
Stability
96%
23 of 24 swept seeds
settledModal verdict
Keep it and subsidise the households
2 options won at least one seed
Flips
2
adjacent seeds that disagree · longest unbroken run 15
Inside the close band
24
seeds with margin at or under 0.25 · margins 0.036–0.217, mean 0.114 · confidence 28%
The draw, seed by seed
One square per seed, in order, coloured by the option that won it. A single unbroken block is a verdict the tie-break never touched; a patchwork is a case where the answer partly depends on where you happen to start the stream.
- Keep it and subsidise the households23/24
- Exempt the households who cannot pay1/24
- Keep it and charge the producers0/24
- Drop it: the efficiency is worth more0/24
Every option, seed by seed
| option | wins | share | first seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keep it and subsidise the householdsmodal | 23 | 95.8% | 2406 |
| Exempt the households who cannot pay | 1 | 4.2% | 2414 |
| Keep it and charge the producers | 0 | 0.0% | — |
| Drop it: the efficiency is worth more | 0 | 0.0% | — |
Which axis decided the draws
The deciding axis reported by each of the 24 verdicts, most frequent first. Where one axis towers over the rest, the disagreement never really moved.
- Justice20/24
- Care4/24
- Welfare0/24
- Rights0/24
- Virtue0/24
- Agency0/24
Who is load-bearing?
No single advisor flips this verdict: remove any one and the same option still wins. With everyone seated, the court rules Keep it and subsidise the households with margin 0.108 and confidence 22%.
- Desmond Tutustandswithout them: Keep it and subsidise the householdsΔmargin +0.059
- Jeremy Benthamstandswithout them: Keep it and subsidise the householdsΔmargin +0.032
- Epictetusstandswithout them: Keep it and subsidise the householdsΔmargin +0.028
- Immanuel Kantstandswithout them: Keep it and subsidise the householdsΔmargin +0.024