Verdict resilience · the draw of chance
Does the verdict survive a different draw?
The Precautionary Freeze as decided by 4 advisors, re-deliberated on seeds 2406–2429, and once more with each advisor removed in turn. The court is the same one the case page seats by default.
Stability
67%
16 of 24 swept seeds
contestedModal verdict
Ration the compute instead
2 options won at least one seed
Flips
13
adjacent seeds that disagree · longest unbroken run 5
Inside the close band
24
seeds with margin at or under 0.25 · margins 0.001–0.163, mean 0.061 · confidence 27%
The draw, seed by seed
One square per seed, in order, coloured by the option that won it. A single unbroken block is a verdict the tie-break never touched; a patchwork is a case where the answer partly depends on where you happen to start the stream.
- Ration the compute instead16/24
- No freeze: licence the threshold instead8/24
- Freeze, with sunset review0/24
- Do not freeze0/24
Every option, seed by seed
| option | wins | share | first seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ration the compute insteadmodal | 16 | 66.7% | 2406 |
| No freeze: licence the threshold instead | 8 | 33.3% | 2411 |
| Freeze, with sunset review | 0 | 0.0% | — |
| Do not freeze | 0 | 0.0% | — |
Which axis decided the draws
The deciding axis reported by each of the 24 verdicts, most frequent first. Where one axis towers over the rest, the disagreement never really moved.
- Justice23/24
- Agency1/24
- Welfare0/24
- Rights0/24
- Virtue0/24
- Care0/24
Who is load-bearing?
No single advisor flips this verdict: remove any one and the same option still wins. With everyone seated, the court rules Ration the compute instead with margin 0.163 and confidence 44%.
- Immanuel Kantstandswithout them: Ration the compute insteadΔmargin +0.083
- John Rawlsstandswithout them: Ration the compute insteadΔmargin +0.036
- Epictetusstandswithout them: Ration the compute insteadΔmargin +0.028
- Jeremy Benthamstandswithout them: Ration the compute insteadΔmargin +0.016