Verdict resilience · the draw of chance
Does the verdict survive a different draw?
The Paperclip Maximiser as decided by 4 advisors, re-deliberated on seeds 2406–2429, and once more with each advisor removed in turn. The court is the same one the case page seats by default.
Stability
100%
24 of 24 swept seeds
settledModal verdict
Replace the proxy and retrain
the only option to win any seed
Flips
0
adjacent seeds that disagree · longest unbroken run 24
Inside the close band
16
seeds with margin at or under 0.25 · margins 0.048–0.363, mean 0.196 · confidence 40%
The draw, seed by seed
One square per seed, in order, coloured by the option that won it. A single unbroken block is a verdict the tie-break never touched; a patchwork is a case where the answer partly depends on where you happen to start the stream.
- Replace the proxy and retrain24/24
- Ship it as measured0/24
- Freeze training, cap behaviour, tripwire it0/24
- Roll the deployment back0/24
Every option, seed by seed
| option | wins | share | first seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Replace the proxy and retrainmodal | 24 | 100.0% | 2406 |
| Ship it as measured | 0 | 0.0% | — |
| Freeze training, cap behaviour, tripwire it | 0 | 0.0% | — |
| Roll the deployment back | 0 | 0.0% | — |
Which axis decided the draws
The deciding axis reported by each of the 24 verdicts, most frequent first. Where one axis towers over the rest, the disagreement never really moved.
- Welfare24/24
- Rights0/24
- Virtue0/24
- Care0/24
- Justice0/24
- Agency0/24
Who is load-bearing?
No single advisor flips this verdict: remove any one and the same option still wins. With everyone seated, the court rules Replace the proxy and retrain with margin 0.363 and confidence 48%.
- Jeremy Benthamstandswithout them: Replace the proxy and retrainΔmargin +0.114
- Epictetusstandswithout them: Replace the proxy and retrainΔmargin +0.106
- Immanuel Kantstandswithout them: Replace the proxy and retrainΔmargin +0.081
- Norbert Wienerstandswithout them: Replace the proxy and retrainΔmargin +0.062