Verdict resilience · the draw of chance
Does the verdict survive a different draw?
The Oracle of Delphi as decided by 4 advisors, re-deliberated on seeds 2406–2429, and once more with each advisor removed in turn. The court is the same one the case page seats by default.
Stability
63%
15 of 24 swept seeds
contestedModal verdict
Restrict the oracle's questions
2 options won at least one seed
Flips
8
adjacent seeds that disagree · longest unbroken run 7
Inside the close band
24
seeds with margin at or under 0.25 · margins 0.022–0.211, mean 0.084 · confidence 30%
The draw, seed by seed
One square per seed, in order, coloured by the option that won it. A single unbroken block is a verdict the tie-break never touched; a patchwork is a case where the answer partly depends on where you happen to start the stream.
- Restrict the oracle's questions15/24
- Take it as advice, not as the decision9/24
- Take the advice as given0/24
- Retire the oracle0/24
Every option, seed by seed
| option | wins | share | first seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Restrict the oracle's questionsmodal | 15 | 62.5% | 2408 |
| Take it as advice, not as the decision | 9 | 37.5% | 2406 |
| Take the advice as given | 0 | 0.0% | — |
| Retire the oracle | 0 | 0.0% | — |
Which axis decided the draws
The deciding axis reported by each of the 24 verdicts, most frequent first. Where one axis towers over the rest, the disagreement never really moved.
- Agency24/24
- Welfare0/24
- Rights0/24
- Virtue0/24
- Care0/24
- Justice0/24
Who is load-bearing?
No single advisor flips this verdict: remove any one and the same option still wins. With everyone seated, the court rules Take it as advice, not as the decision with margin 0.066 and confidence 31%.
- Epictetusstandswithout them: Take it as advice, not as the decisionΔmargin +0.063
- Jeremy Benthamstandswithout them: Take it as advice, not as the decisionΔmargin +0.014
- Norbert Wienerstandswithout them: Take it as advice, not as the decisionΔmargin +0.010
- Immanuel Kantstandswithout them: Take it as advice, not as the decisionΔmargin −0.021