Verdict resilience · the draw of chance
Does the verdict survive a different draw?
The Council of Elders as decided by 4 advisors, re-deliberated on seeds 2406–2429, and once more with each advisor removed in turn. The court is the same one the case page seats by default.
Stability
50%
12 of 24 swept seeds
fragileModal verdict
Accept, but require published reasoning
2 options won at least one seed
Flips
15
adjacent seeds that disagree · longest unbroken run 2
Inside the close band
24
seeds with margin at or under 0.25 · margins 0.001–0.217, mean 0.051 · confidence 24%
The draw, seed by seed
One square per seed, in order, coloured by the option that won it. A single unbroken block is a verdict the tie-break never touched; a patchwork is a case where the answer partly depends on where you happen to start the stream.
- Accept, but require published reasoning12/24
- No permanent council; rotate the duty12/24
- Accept the council0/24
- Decline: the city keeps itself0/24
Every option, seed by seed
| option | wins | share | first seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accept, but require published reasoningmodal | 12 | 50.0% | 2406 |
| No permanent council; rotate the duty | 12 | 50.0% | 2408 |
| Accept the council | 0 | 0.0% | — |
| Decline: the city keeps itself | 0 | 0.0% | — |
Which axis decided the draws
The deciding axis reported by each of the 24 verdicts, most frequent first. Where one axis towers over the rest, the disagreement never really moved.
- Agency24/24
- Welfare0/24
- Rights0/24
- Virtue0/24
- Care0/24
- Justice0/24
Who is load-bearing?
The bench is load-bearing at one or two seats: a single absence hands the case to another option. With everyone seated, the court rules Accept, but require published reasoning with margin 0.001 and confidence 20%.
- Aristotlepivotalwithout them: No permanent council; rotate the dutyΔmargin −0.033
Removing this advisor alone hands the case to No permanent council; rotate the duty.
- Jeremy Benthampivotalwithout them: No permanent council; rotate the dutyΔmargin −0.049
Removing this advisor alone hands the case to No permanent council; rotate the duty.
- Immanuel Kantstandswithout them: Accept, but require published reasoningΔmargin −0.032
- Epictetusstandswithout them: Accept, but require published reasoningΔmargin −0.051